Recently, I've had conversations with a number of graduate students who are not particularly enjoying science at the moment, and a lot of this seems to stem from either supervisor-related issues (see my previous posts about this issue here, here, and here) or from the despair that is common when a project that you invested a ton of time in just doesn't work out. This got me thinking about how investing your time and energy in research projects is much like investing your money. I think it's safe to say that no good financial advisor would recommend that you invest five years worth of salary in one risky company. But that's pretty much what you're doing if your dissertation project is the only project you have (particularly if it's a risky project that has a minimal chance of working out).
As with investing money, research investments tend to follow the pattern of high-risk research yielding potentially high rewards (e.g., a paper in Science, lots of citations) but having a large probability of failure. Conversely, low-risk research has a high probability of succeeding and leading to publication, but the payoff is lower (e.g., publishing in a low or mid-tier journal, low or moderate citations). For me, one of the keys to maintaining motivation and productivity has been to have a diverse research portfolio with projects that vary in their riskiness. I have some projects that are lower impact but are almost guaranteed to lead to a publication along with some riskier, more exciting projects that could potentially lead to high-impact papers... but could also totally flop. So, even when one of those risky projects fails I still have papers I can write and projects that are going well, keeping me from falling into a pit of research-induced despair.
My advice, to grad students in particular, is to make sure that you aren't betting everything on one project. If your dissertation project doesn't work out you can usually still get a PhD, but you'll have a hell of a time getting a postdoc or faculty position without any publications. Having some side projects of varying riskiness can help ensure that you end up employable. And, as a bonus, some of those projects that you initially thought were low-impact could turn out to be really interesting and exciting to the field!
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